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WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model For 2.0 AU with Completion Time:
2022-07-05T18:03Z
Model Inputs: 2022-07-05T04:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=27.0, Lat.=-24.0, Speed=514.0, HalfAngle=42.0, Time21.5=2022-07-05T10:21Z 2022-07-05T04:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=119.0, Lat.=5.0, Speed=543.0, HalfAngle=26.0, Time21.5=2022-07-05T10:38Z 2022-07-04T21:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=97.0, Lat.=9.0, Speed=299.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2022-07-05T12:00Z Model Outputs: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-07-08T14:30Z (+- 7 hours) Duration of disturbance (hr) = 14.6 (+- 8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.6 Possible Kp index: (kp)90=3 (kp)135=4 (kp)180=5 Other Location(s) Impact: Parker Solar Probe with estimated shock arrival time 2022-07-07T06:41Z STEREO B with estimated shock arrival time 2022-07-08T12:43Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220705_120000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220705_120000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220705_120000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220705_120000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220705_120000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220705_120000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220705_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220705_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220705_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220705_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220705_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220705_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220705_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220705_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220705_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220705_120000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif Note : Initial analysis indicated glancing blows to Mars, OSIRIS-REx, and STEREO A. However, further analysis clarifies the increases in simulated solar wind parameters are due to an anticipated high speed stream arrival. High speed stream impacts are expected at Mars on 2022-07-09T16:00Z, OSIRIS-REx at 2022-07-08T18:00Z, and STEREO A at 2022-07-08T11:00Z. Also, the C-type CME with Activity ID: 2022-07-05T04:48:00-CME-001 may impact Bepi-Colombo around 2022-07-06T00:00Z based on visual inspection of the simulation animation. Submitted on 2022-07-05T18:50Z by Mattie Anastopulos A Notification with ID 20220705-AL-001 was sent on 2022-07-05T20:15Z A Notification with ID 20220706-AL-001 was sent on 2022-07-06T17:30Z |
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